Game #124 Lineups and Outlook | The Process Report

Game #124 Lineups and Outlook

The system pretty much nailed it yesterday, though it had no idea that Blake Snell would have to get on his knees for the ump if he wanted a strike or that David Price had already done his work in that regard well before the game. However you slice it, Price got numerous calls laterally, while Snell couldn’t buy a strike despite living all around the fringes of the zone. That’s life, I guess, but it would be nice to see an umpire not call the game based on the service time of the pitchers involved. Wishful thinking, I suppose.

Screen Shot 2016-08-23 at 4.32.38 PM

Today’s bout feature a man who wears sunscreen indoors, Clay Buchholz, and the Rays ace, Chris Archer. Archie has been really good at home all year so even though he’s facing a pretty stout lineup I like his chances better than Snell’s yesterday. Being right-handed is a big part of that. The Red Sox will counter this appendage differential with a full line change over the boards. David Ortiz represents their best chance, but there are some other good ones in there, as well. For the Rays you’re looking at a little more balance to the lineup, though not quite that ever-present slugger like the other guys will have tonight. Maybe that’s easier to work around, maybe it just creates more of a tease as guys get on, but fail to get in. Stay tuned to find out which.

The system likes the Red Sox a good deal better than the Rays today and it might be worth chasing that value. Part of this is due to Buchholz having better career numbers than what he has done this year, but the other part is due to a decided advantage in the bullpen:

Screen Shot 2016-08-23 at 4.33.31 PM

Tampa Bay should be well placed once the Red Sox go to the lefties Ross or Abad with a bench that is dominated by righties, but once you factor in the pinch-hit penalty it’s likely that only Duffy actually represents an upgrade.