Some Aspects Are Bad, Others Not As Bad As You May Think About 0-6 | The Process Report

Some Aspects Are Bad, Others Not As Bad As You May Think About 0-6

The not as bad as you think

Colin Wyers did the hard work for everyone and found that 39 percent of playoff teams since 1974 have endured a losing streak of at least six games during that season. Wyers also found that three-fourths of World Series winners had a losing streak of at least five games during their championship campaigns. If you look at these six games as independent variables that just so happened to come during the first week instead of, say, the eighth or the ninth, then their horror value is marginalized.

The bad

PECOTA’s simulations now have the Rays winning 82 games on the season. You don’t even need fancy simulations to know that a six-game losing streak is going to hurt you. For instance, say you thought the Rays were an 85-win team entering the season (a pretty fair number), then you’d expect the team to win 52.5 percent of its games. With six games down as losses, there are 156 games left. That means, if the team hasn’t changed its true talent level a bit and plays at a 52.5 percent rate throughout, then they will win 82 wins.

The playoffs –and even a World Series victory—are not out of grasp quite yet, but has it diminished expected win totals? Yeah, of course. Weird things happen all the time in baseball.

One Comment

  1. thekidpow wrote:

    Didn’t the 08 team lose 7 in a row at one point?

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