Stability Check: Swing Rates | The Process Report

Stability Check: Swing Rates

Pizza Cutter published a classic article that finds when certain statistics stabilize. These numbers are a good benchmark to finding when we have a large enough sample size to start comparing data. Let’s look at each of these statistics for the Rays as they stabilize.

First up, swing percentage, which stabilizes at 50 plate appearances.

Batter PA 2011 Swing % Career Swing % Difference
Ben Zobrist 168 36.8 38.9 -2.1
Sam Fuld 164 38.6 39.2 -0.6
BJ Upton 155 46.7 43.5 3.2
Johnny Damon 155 51.5 43.8 7.7
Matt Joyce 132 48.3 46.3 2.0
Reid Brignac 97 55.5 53.9 1.6
Casey Kotchman 95 43.6 45.4 -1.8
Sean Rodriguez 85 44.9 46.3 -1.4
John Jaso 84 36.9 34.2 2.7
Dan Johnson 81 47.3 37.6 9.7
Felipe Lopez 76 45.6 40 5.6
Kelly Shoppach 65 57.3 49.5 7.8
Evan Longoria 58 43.9 45.1 -1.2

Overall, the team is swinging much more often. This is led by Dan Johnson (+9.7 percent) and Kelly Shoppach (+7.8 percent). B.J. Upton and Johnny Damon are also swinging much more often than they previously have. Only five players have actually decreased their swinging percentage, most notably Ben Zobrist and Casey Kotchman. I’m not entirely certain what this means, but it is something to watch over the course of the season.



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