The Quick Math Behind Crawford’s Gaffe | The Process Report

The Quick Math Behind Crawford’s Gaffe

By R.J. Anderson //

Sternfan1 is probably the closest thing to a rockstar the Rays’ blogosphere possesses. Last night, he challenged me to quantify Carl Crawford’s choice to attempt an advance on a flyout to right field. I’ll do this for him: what was the breakeven point on that play?

To recap, Crawford is on second with one out and Mariano Rivera pitching as a ball is hit to medium-ish right field. Greg Golson is the right fielder and catches the ball, thus making it a two outs situation. Using the most general of Run Expectancy values, we have the following situations that could occur:

Crawford stays: runner on second with two outs.
Crawford goes
Is safe: runner on third with two outs.
Is out: game is over.

Using the run values provided here, the breakeven point is 88%. Meaning, Crawford needed to think he was going to make it. And maybe he did think that. Ultimately the gain is too minimal to attempt the risk.

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