The Rays’ Run Scoring Ways | The Process Report

The Rays’ Run Scoring Ways

By R.J. Anderson //

Credit to Sternfan1 for the idea, I had to flip some data I used last season in this post. Originally used here.

Through September 9 of last season, the Rays were scoring fewer runs in 61% of their games than their average runs per game figure would suggest. That sentence is a trick one and I couldn’t arrive at a clearer or more concise manner in which to provide that data. What I’m saying is that the Rays had a R/G of 5.07. In 61% of their games, though, they scored fewer than 5.07 (5.00 as it stands) runs. That was the highest percentage in the American League and provided great ammunition for those looking to tear the Rays’ runs scoring ability.

A lot of theories were proposed – mostly strikeouts and situational hitting – and I offered a few of my own: ineffective leadoff hitting, constant lineup altering to play the hot hand, inefficient lineup usage, and underperformers in key roles. Either the Rays solved all of those issues, or the random fluctuation inherent over any one season has swung in the extreme opposite way, because not only are the Rays scoring more than their R/G tally in 51% of their games, but that number happens to be the best in the American League:

Like 12 months ago, I’m not sure entirely what to make of this data, but any concerns that the Rays’ runs tally is inflated because of a few outbursts is misplaced by an entire calendar edition.

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