Tim Beckham: Can Dreams Come True? | The Process Report

Tim Beckham: Can Dreams Come True?

Tim Beckham, the starting shortstop for the the Rays Double-A affiliate, was drafted as the first overall pick in 2008 and received the third-largest bonus in team history. So far, he has not met expectations.

Once ranked as highly as 28th by Baseball America, Beckham is now is not even in their top 10 in the Rays’ system.  Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus has called this “a make-or-break year for his prospect status.” R.J. looked at a dream scenario for this make-or-break year for Beckham a month ago and so far, it has been playing out:

Tim Beckham 21 .302 .378 .397 .774
League Average Hitter 24.6 .264 .338 .408 .746
League Average SS 24.5 .268 .344* .373 .717

*Does not include HBP or SF, but should still be fairly accurate.
Data courtesy of baseball-reference and milb.com

Beckham is over three years younger than the average player in the Southern League, but is out-producing the average player in nearly every category. Obviously, this is only through 33 games and 143 plate appearances, but Beckham is getting great results so far. He is doing all of this with a BABIP of .375, which is high, but not so high that his stats feel artificially inflated. The Southern League average BABIP is currently about .314.

If Beckham can keep this up, it’s possible he gets called up to Durham next season to get his chance against higher-quality opponents. If he is able to succeed there as well, he could get his chance in the big leagues to prove himself as soon as late 2012.

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